It is the thirteenth session of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP) and the eleventh session of the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention (AWG-LCA).

A discussion document prepared beforehand notes that "the Cook Islands and over 100 other countries" want to keep global temperature rise on average below 1.5°C because "higher temperature rises would have catastrophic effects. Despite a recent drop due to the global economic downturn, there is a strong upward trend over the longer term in emissions from both sectors."

However, as things stand, the rise is likely to be over 3.5°C.

The Cook Islands proposed a compromise solution to the stand off between developed and developing nations at the last discussions in June.

They have tabled an amendment to the Bali roadmap plan which takes a harder line on aviation and shipping emissions, currently outside of any agreements, and urges these industries "to ensure that the majority of any revenue arising from the implementation of such policy approaches and measures shall be made available to support climate change adaptation and mitigation in developing countries".

This challenge is aimed squarely at the International Civil Aviation Organization and the International Maritime Organization. Both of these industries presently escape regulation although attempts are being made to include them within for example the European Union emissions trading scheme.

No chance of lowering emissions
Just before the talks, a highly pessimistic Climate Action Tracker Update was issued. It calculates that actions pledged so far by countries, since Copenhagen, on reductions of greenhouse gas emissions, give virtually no chance to limit global mean temperature increase to below 2°C.

The Climate Action Tracker was developed by Ecofys together with researchers of Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

"The reduction proposals by the big developed and developing countries have not changed since our last update and existing loopholes have not been eliminated yet. Hence, our calculations still point to a virtual certainty of exceeding 1.5°C, with global warming by 2100 very likely to rise above 2°C and even a 50% chance of exceeding 3°C", says Dr. Bill Hare (Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research).

New countries with significant action include Bhutan and Papua New Guinea: Bhutan reported that its forests captured significantly more carbon than it emitted in all other sectors. Bhutan is already carbon neutral and pledged to stay carbon neutral. While the submitted data are still to be verified, Bhutan's commitment can be considered as significant. Papua New Guinea aims to decrease its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 50% before 2030 and to be climate neutral by 2050. This commitment is also significant and goes beyond the ambition of many developed countries.

New countries in the middle of the ambition range include Singapore and Israel: Singapore pledged to reduce its emissions by 16% below 'business as usual' in 2020, but at the same time projected its 'business as usual' emissions to grow much faster than historic trends. Israel pledged 20% below business as usual in 2020.

Moldova asked for new 'hot air': its current emissions are 75% below the 1990 level, due to economic downturn in the 90s. Its pledge to limit emissions by 2020 to 25% below from 1990 would raise Moldova's 'allowed' emissions to three times today's emissions, even exceeding expected emissions by 2020 in Moldova's 'business as usual' scenario.

The industrial emissions reduction targets for 2020 of developed countries as a whole are estimated to be 11-19% below the 1990 level of greenhouse-gas emissions (excluding forestry and land use change emissions).

But new rules on being able to include existing forest cover are having a poor effects on attempts to tackle climate change. Emission credits calculated from accounting options for land use, land use change and forestry would degrade the above figure by about 5% to about 6-14% below 1990 levels by 2020.

The low reduction target (6% in aggregate) is based on unconditional or 'unilateral' targets for most countries, while most countries link the highest reduction target (14% in aggregate) to a hypothetical strong international agreement yet to be reached.

By way of comparison, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says that around 25-40% reductions by industrialised countries by 2020 from 1990 GHG emissions levels are necessary.

The European Union has not changed its position and proposed new pledges, although it has discussed a shift in position from its 20% unilateral to a 30% conditional target. Climate Analytics calculates that a 30% unilateral target would bring the EU to the boundary between 'medium' and 'sufficient' ambition levels.

The US has proposed to limit its emissions to 17% below 2005 by 2020 (3% below 1990). Climate Analytics rates this as Inadequate, besides of which it is in danger given that legislation to achieve this emission target has stalled in the US Senate, and is unlikely to be passed this year.

As the US emits close to 40% of industrial emissions in developed countries (and roughly 20% globally), action by the US is important for reaching the necessary 25-40% reductions by industrialized countries by 2020.

With these new developments the world is still headed for a global warming of 3.5°C by 2100 (2.9 to 4.4°C). Carbon dioxide concentrations are projected to be over 650 ppm (parts per million) in 2100, far above the 350 ppm limit called for by many countries.

Total greenhouse-gas concentrations would be close to 800 ppm CO2 equivalent by 2100.

The results would be catastrophic with large areas of the planet becoming uninhabitable.

http://unfccc.int