"Measured against scientific analysis, and the demands of developing countries, the pledges and the weak rules put forward by Annex I Parties are dangerously inadequate", the authors warn.

Developing countries such as those who met at Bolivia's Climate Summit earlier this year argue for minimum 40% emission cuts from industrialised nations by 2020. The Alliance of Small Island States has complained that rich nations' pledges could equate to a reduction of only 1 to 7 percent in emissions by 2020 if they exploit what the group describes as "imperfections" in the protocol.

But new analysis from the Stockholm Environment Institute and Third World Network (TWN) shows that current pledges amount to only 12-18% reductions below 1990 levels without loopholes. The Stockholm Environment Institute has done much work on carbon markets and offset programmes over the years, and contributes lead authors to the Fifth Assessment Report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Its analysis says that when all loopholes are taken into account, emissions could be allowed to rise by 9%.

The research factored in four separate loopholes that are known to exist, but which countries have so far failed to address in the negotiations. These include:

  • Land use and forestry credits
  • Carbon offset credits gained from UN Clean Development Mechanism schemes
  • Surplus carbon allowances accumulated by former Soviet countries 
  • International aviation and shipping emissions, which are not currently Included in emission reduction schemes proposed by countries.

It quotes an article in Nature that reports that some countries' Kyoto targets are so weak that "large amounts of surplus allowances have been and will be generated over the 2008-2012 period even without any environmental policy effort." This adds up to 11 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent of surplus allowances.

In addition, land use loopholes could result in an additional 0.5 gigatonnes per year of emissions on top of pledged amounts.

Furthermore, they say, by using carbon markets to 'offset' their emissions, both domestic emissions of the rich will pollute at higher levels at home, and count the offset against a hypothetical baseline in developing countries, often without any real proof of additional reductions. This also shifts the burden of reducing emissions to developing countries.

The European Union, for instance, has indicated that it intends to undertake between 20-30% of all its 'emission reductions' abroard. The EU Energy Package would allow around two-thirds of emissions to be offset during the third-phase of the EU Emissions Trading System.

"The trend of rich countries is a slow reduction in emissions towards 1990 levels, but if you add in the loopholes you see that they could emit way more," said Sivan Kartha, senior scientist at the Stockholm Institute. "They could accumulate huge amounts of credits to continue business as usual."

Farce
"The more we look into the loopholes the worse it gets. The whole thing begins to look like a farce", said Lim Li Lin, a legal specialist with TWN.

Pablo Solon, Bolivia's ambassador to the UN, in addition quoted peer-reviewed research by leading Nasa scientist Jim Hansen and the German government's Advisory Council on Global Change which, he said, showed that the world had a "budget" of 750 gigatonnes of CO2 over the next 40 years if it sought a 66% chance of holding temperature rises to under 2°C.

The world had a smaller budget of just 420GT of CO2 if it wanted to stay below 1.5°C, as more than 100 countries have so far demanded.

"With the current pledges on the table, we have calculated that the Annex 1 (industrialised) nations are going to spend the whole [carbon] budget of the next 40 years in the next ten years," Solon said. "What is on the table has no relation to any target that [rich countries] have established. It is like a salary. If you spend it all in the first week then you have nothing left for the rest of the month."

Figueres said the main focus this week will be to transform public pledges into quantified emissions cuts. Some developing countries have accused industrialised nations of trying to avoid putting numbers to their pledges.

"We should not get distracted by other considerations and delay action. (Developed nations) must agree on consistent emissions cuts," said India's special representative.

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[image caption:] The graph (right) was tabled by Bolivia on June 9, 2010 to the UN negotiations and shows the actual and pledged emissions of various countries.